【禁闻】新出口记录 国家补贴国外消费者?

【禁闻】新出口记录 国家补贴国外消费者?

【新唐人2011年5月14日讯】大陆的海关总署最新资料显示，4月份出口1556．9亿美
元，但�口增长疲软。专家指出，由于补贴政策，中国出口强劲，本质上是中国国家补
贴国外消费者，但这种发展孕育巨大危险。

中国海关5月10号公布资料显示，4月份出口1556．9亿美元创下新高，而贸易顺差
114.2亿美元，远超一季度的7.1亿美元。不过，海关的资料与商务部长陈铭德的说法却
有出入。

就在本周的美中战略与经济对话上，陈德铭声称："从贸易角度来看，西方对中国人民
币的担忧和疑虑毫无根据，因为过去三年，中国贸易顺差一直在减少。"

对于中国强劲的出口，经济学家程晓农认为，中国产品的出口是靠中国（共）政府的退
税政策，结果是导致国内的价格反而比国外高。

经济学家程晓农：「中国很多出口商品本身就是压低价格出口的，出口的时候，出口企
业没有利润，是赔本做买卖。那么政府怎么维持这些企业的生产呢？政府提供出口退
税，大概退税率在平均百分之十左右，这个退税率就是企业的利润。」

程晓农指出：「中国的出口企业产品内销，它就没有出口退税，所以价格要比国外的价
格要高的多。也就是说中国（共）政府补贴了外国消费者，但允许国内消费者吃亏。但
要是不给出口退税，这些出口企业早就停止出口了。」

显然这种出口并不能真正带来经济增长，人民财富也不会增加。

英国经济预测机构环球透视（IHS Global Insight）首席经济学家阿利斯泰尔．桑顿
（AlistairThornton），针对中国出口强劲、�口疲软现况，推断为「中国经济减速」
而不是国际需求强劲造成的，他认为，中国经济再度出现疲弱。

大陆经济学家吴敬琏，也提出了对中国经济内部失衡的担忧。

吴敬琏认为，在现行体制下，资本的所有者主要是国家、国企和富裕人群。在这种情况
下，劳动者收人的份额很低，从上世纪80年代约占国民收人总额的三分之二，到二十一
世纪初已经降到50%左右。

而居民消费占GDP的比重，也从上世纪90年代约占45%(世界平均水准约为60%)，降到二
��七年的36%。吴敬琏表示，这使中国经济增长缺乏内在动力，而"出口导向"也不是
一种可以长期支持经济稳定成长的政策。所以必须改变分配政策和经济模式转型，否则
恶化不可避免。

而著名经济学家罗比尼（NourielRoubini）对中国经济更为悲观。最近两次去中国考察
的罗比尼认为，中国经济增长直到现在为止，都是由「大量出口」与超低的「人民币汇
率」推动的。这两个因素导致中国人储蓄持续增长，国内消费不足，而政府一再扩大投
资规模。

罗比尼表示，08、09年，当中国出口大幅下跌时，中共仍然继续扩大固定投资。现在固
定投资占国内生产总值的近50%。但是，一旦到了有一天，固定投资不可能继续扩大
时，经济就会出现停摆。

新唐人记者宋风、肖颜综合报导。

New Export Record: China Subsidizes Foreign Consumers?

China's General Administration of Customs' (Customs)latest data showed
China's exports in April reached$155.69 billion, while import data remained
weak.Experts point out that China's strong exports are due toits subsidy
policy. In essence, China is subsidizingforeign consumers,which could cause
future economic problems for China.

Customs' data released on May 10, showed April'sexport of $155.69 billion
hit a new high, with a$11.42 billion trade surplus―far more thanthe $7.1
billion trade surplus of the first quarter.However, this data is different
from what theMinister of Commerce Chen Deming recently stated.

During the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue,Chen stated: "From a
trade perspective,the fears and doubts of the West,regarding the Chinese
yuan, is ungrounded.In the past 3 years, China's trade surplus has reduced."

Economist Cheng Xiaonong thinks thatChina's strong export data is due to
its tax rebate policy,causing exported products to be more expensivein
China, than overseas.

Economist Cheng Xiaonong:"The prices of many exported products were
loweredto the point that a lot of businesses didn't earn a profit,while
others businesses even lost money.How does the Chinese government continue
to export?They provide about 10% in tax rebates,and that is the profit
earned by these businesses."

Cheng Xiaonong pointed out:There are no export tax rebates when the
sameproducts are sold in China, so the prices of goodsin China are higher
than the prices overseas.Therefore the Chinese government is
subsidingforeign consumers. However, it requires thatdomestic consumers pay
higher prices for goods.If there were no exort tax rebates, businesseswould
have stopped exporting a long time ago.

Obviously, this kind of export policy cannot bringtrue economic growth or
wealth to the people.

http://finance.ifeng.com/news/special/zmzlyjjdh/20110510/4004622.shtml

Alistair Thornton, Chief Economist of U.K.'s economicforecast organization,
IHS Global Insight, thinks thatChina's strong export and weak import
policyshows that "China's economy is slowing down,"with less and less
international demand.He believes that China's economy will weaken again.

Wu Jinglian, an economist from Dalian City, alsoraised concerns about
imbalances within the economy.

Wu Jinglian believes in the current system, the maincapital holders are the
government, state-ownedenterprises, and wealthy people.The share of workers
income is very low,decreased from 80% in the 1980sto about 50%, around 2000.

The proportion of consumption over GDP decreasedfrom 45% in 1990s (the
world average is about 60%)to 36% in 2007. According to Wu Jinglian,a
decrease in consumption over GDPwill slow down China's
growth.The "export-oriented" policy cannot support along-term economic
stability and growth.Therefore, China must change its distribution
policyand transform its economic pattern,or else it is doomed to fail.

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini holds amore pessimistic view on the
Chinese economy.Recently Roubini made two visits to China.He thinks that
China's economic growth, until now,is driven by "large exports " and an
ultra-low"exchange rate."These two factors have led toits continued capital
growth,lack of domestic consumption, andrepeated and expanded government
investments.

Roubini stated that when China's export decreasedsharply in 2008 and 2009,
the Chinese governmentcontinued to expand fixed investments. Currently,fix
investments account for nearly 50% of GDP.However, when fixed investments
cease to expand,the economy will enevitably stall.

NTD reporters Song Feng and Xiao Yan 2011-05-14
10:05:50http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/05/14/a531759.html.-【禁闻】新出口
记录-国家补贴国外消费者?.html