【禁闻】“猪肉”拉动CPI飞涨的背后

【禁闻】"猪肉"拉动CPI飞涨的背后

【新唐人2011年7月13日讯】中国6月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)上涨6.4%，创36个月新
高，其中以猪肉价格上涨57.1%最多。高昂的肉价引起社会的轰动，甚至白领都表示生
活艰难。学者表示，中国经济正在「硬着陆！」

中共统计局公布的最新资料显示，6月中国居民消费价格指数CPI同比上涨6.4%，在食品
类的肉禽及制品中，以猪肉价格上涨最多，猪肉价格上涨57.1%，占CPI涨幅的21.4%。

美国南卡罗莱纳大学教授谢田表示，大陆的猪肉价格上涨，只是中国通货膨胀继续恶化
的表现。而中国百姓对猪肉价格上涨敏感，与家庭购买食物的支出比重有关，显示中国
家庭用在食物的支出偏重。

谢田（美国南卡罗莱纳大学教授）："中国老百姓对猪肉价格敏感，正好说明中国还是
一个『穷国'。购买食物的支出，在西方国家，比如美国只有收入的百分之几到百分之
十。而中国作为一个发展中国家，跟其他穷国一样，一般人食物方面的支出高达40%到
50%。这么高的支出花在食物上，老百姓对食物价格上涨非常敏感。"

据中国统计局的资料显示，构成CPI的8大类商品和服务价格也全数上涨，「非食品」因
素逐渐成为推高CPI 的重要力量。

谢田教授还表示，中共计算的物价上涨指数（CPI）是有水分的，如果把与百姓生活重
要相关的资料，如住房等加上，CPI会更高。但中共为了减少对社会的影响，采用了「
逐渐提高CPI」的做法。不过，谢田说，即使按中共公布的资料，中国的通膨也是非常
严重的，这说明中共遏制通膨的举措完全失败。

谢田教授："早在半年前，许多香港、海外研究中国股市的人们、研究经济的人们发
现，实际上中国通货膨胀远远不止当时中国政府公布的4―5%，而是高达15%，甚至更
高。"

《德国之声》日前一篇《中国高通胀令人担忧》文章写到，中国物价正在以出人意料的
速度上涨，以致政府都开始担心社会失稳。但另一方面，大陆央行却不能过快的使经济
降温，否则"硬着陆"带来的风险难以估量。自去年10月以来，大陆央行已经连续五次提
高主导利率，连续9次提高银行准备金率，以减少货币流通量。留给央行的调控空间已
然不多了。

还有学者对中国经济分析后，感到更为悲观！

美国著名的经济金融分析师西林发表报告说，因为中国大陆的货币不受限制的巨量供
给，和银行毫无节制的巨量贷出款项，所以目前中国大陆总体国债数量，已经到达或者
超过了十四万亿美元，折合人民币是九十多万亿。以十四亿人口计算，人均是六万多块
钱的国债。西林还认为，人们的购买力低，富人的热钱大量的外流，房地产泡沫已经破
裂，中国经济正在走向「硬着陆」。

而食品价格高对社会稳定也可能造成潜在影响。一名新浪微博的用户总结了公众的情
绪，说：在一个工业和经济迅速增长的国家，为什么一个普通人吃饭就这么难？

新唐人记者周玉林、宋风、薛莉采访报导。

Chinese Pork Increases CPI

In June, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.4%,the highest in the
past 36 months, with pork price up by 57.1%.The high price of meat has
caused an uproar.Many white-collar workers find it difficult to make ends
meet.Scholars say China's economy is undergoing a "hard landing."

Chinese Bureau of Statistics released the latest datashowing that in June,
China's CPI rose 6.4% since a year ago.Pork prices rose 57.1%, the highest
among food products,and pork accounts for 21.4% of the CPI increase.

Professor Xie Tian in University of South Carolina says thatthe increase of
pork prices indicates an accelerating inflation.The Chinese are sensitive
to the increase of pork prices,because food takes up a great proportion of
household spending.

Xie: "Chinese people's sensitivity towards pork pricesshows that China is
still a poor country.In Western countries such as the United States,food
expenditure takes up less than 10% of the income,while in China it takes up
as much as 40% to 50%.Such a high expenditure makes people sensitive to
food prices."

According to China's Bureau of Statistics, prices of eightcategories of
products that constitute CPI also rose.Non-food factors have become major
causes of CPI increase.

Professor Xie also said that the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) manipulated
the calculation of China's CPI.If housing and other important factors of
daily life are added,CPI would be even higher. To reduce its social
impact,however, CCP resorted to "gradually increasing the CPI."Even so, Xie
said, the CCP's report indicates serious inflation.It shows that CCP has
completely failed to control inflation.

Professor Xie Tian:As early as six months ago, many foreign scholars of
Chineseeconomy found that China's inflation was higher than the
4-5%announced by Chinese government, and was as high as 15%."

An article titled "China's Disturbing Inflation" from DeutscheWelle writes
that prices in China are increasing unexpectedly.The government begins to
worry about social instability.China's Central Bank fails to cool down the
economy.Risks of "hard landing" are incalculable.Since October 2010, the
Central Bank has increased interestrates five times, and increased bank
reserve ratio 9 times.There is not much room left for the Central Bank to
control.

Some scholars are more pessimistic about China's economy.A U.S. economic
and financial analyst says thatChina has a massive amount of unrestricted
money supply,and banks lend out large amounts of money without
restraints.So the current amount of national debt in China has reachedUSD
14 trillion, equal to RMB 90 trillion.It is a debt of RMB 60,000 per
capita.He also believes that people's purchasing power is low,while the
wealthy people's hot money flows out.The real estate bubble has burst,
andthe Chinese economy is moving towards a "hard landing."

The high food prices may pose threats to social stability.A user of Sina's
micro-blog sums up the public mood, asking,"With a rapidly growing industry
and national economy,why is it so hard for an ordinary person to eat?"

NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Song Feng and Xue Li 2011-07-13
08:13:28http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/07/13/a559059.html.-【禁闻】"猪肉
"拉动CPI飞涨的背后.html