【禁闻】经济专家：全大陆地方债达69万亿

【禁闻】经济专家：全大陆地方债达69万亿

【新唐人2011年7月13日讯】国际债评机构「穆迪公司」最近发表报告，质疑中国实际
公共债务。一位中国国务院的经济专家向本台记者透露，全中国的地方政府债务实际高
达69万亿人民币。有经济专家指出，地方政府已经无力偿还这些庞大的债务。

近期，日本《外交学者》杂志网站发表了美国「卡内基国际和平基金会」高级研究员裴
敏欣的文章：「中国嘀嗒作响的债务炸弹」其中的部分内容。

文章说，如果我们还记得席卷美国和西欧的经济危机的起因，其中最重要的一点就是「
贷款潮」，也就是，「过度借贷」加剧了「房地产泡沫」，和不可持续的消费。中国似
乎已经出现了同样的问题，但只有一个主要的不同，就是：中国的大量债务出现在「基
础设施行业」，而不是「消费」领域。这就是「中国特殊论」。

据中国审计署最近透露，中国各级地方政府的债务高达10万亿元人民币。审计调查显
示，截至去年底，全国除54个县级政府没有政府债务外，省、市、县三级地方政府债务
余额超过10万亿元，其中60%是政府负有偿还责任的债务。

而据香港「渣打银行」亚洲区高级经济师刘健恒估计，中国地方政府的债务累计高达
15万亿人民币，单是每年偿还的利息已达8800亿人民币，占去年收入21%，负担颇为沉
重。

而中国国务院的一位资深经济专家，在接受《新唐人》采访时表示，目前全中国的地方
债务远远超过10万亿。

国务院经济专家：「国家统计局统计出的那个『地方债'，只是国家发文批准发行的地
方债，有证据的这个地方债，是10.7万亿，但是，根据各个地方他们自行发行的债
务，达到69万亿这是全国的。」

他进一步透露69万亿是如何统计出来的。

国务院经济专家：「是按照银行的统计，通过国家的四大银行，像工行、建行、农行、
交通银行，我们按照这个四大银行统计数据，然后上报给人民银行，根据人民银行的统
计数据出来的就是69万亿。」

随着地方政府债务曝光，北京无法再向外界隐瞒公共债务风险问题。

7月6号，由中共总理温家宝主持的国务院常务会议，指出了多年形成的地方政府性债务
规模存在的风险隐患。尽管中共当局列举出几条措施，要求做出整改工作，但是许多分
析并不看好。

美国时政财经评论专家草庵居士表示：中共当局在处理这些问题上已经错过了良机。

草庵居士（美国时政财经评论专家）：「因为现在是地方政府已经到无法偿还债务的情
况，所以在这时就引起整个政府的管制危机，如果地方政府不偿还债务的话，民众就会
暴发反抗，因为投资到这些钱就会收不回来。可是中央政府要是管的话，这笔债务又是
庞大的债务，可能就相当于中国一年GDP。所以在这时候，中国（共）政府也没有这么
多财政收入去偿还。」

草庵居士认为，中国（共）政府能够解决的办法，无非就是通过清还地方债务来借
贷，最后由中央银行来承担责任，再通过「发行钞票、通货膨胀」来稀释减轻地方的负
债。

不过，草庵居士忧心的表示，中国地方债务已经成为一个非常大的炸弹，随时可能会引
爆中国经济的崩溃。

Local Debts Reach RMB 69 Trillion

Moody's, an international debt rating agency,recently questioned China's
actual public debt.An economist at China's State Council told NTD
thatChina's local government debts were RMB 69 trillion.Economists pointed
out that China's local governmentsare unable to pay such huge debts.

Japanese magazine The Diplomat recently publishedan article by Pei Meixin,
a senior fellow at CarnegieEndowment for International Peace Foundation.It
is titled "China's Ticking Debt Bomb."

The article said, the most important cause of the economiccrisis in the
U.S. and Western Europe, is the "credit boom.""Excessive borrowing"
exacerbated the "real estate bubble"and an unsustainable consumption.China
seems to be having the same problem, with one difference.That is, China has
large debts in "infrastructure industries,"rather than in "consumption."
This is "Chinese exceptionalism."

A survey by Audit Authority shows that by the end of 2010,in China, except
for 54 counties, the debt balance of provincial,municipal and county
governments was over RMB 10 trillion,60% of which the central government is
responsible to repay.

Kelvin Lau, Asia senior economist at Standard Charteredestimated that
China's local governments had accumulatedRMB 15 trillion in debt. The
annual interest paymentalone was RMB 880 billion, accounting for 21% oflast
year's local revenues. The burden is quite heavy.

However, a senior economist of China's State Council,told NTD that the
actual figure was far more thanRMB 10 trillion.

State Council's economist:The local debt statistics from the National
Bureau of Statisticsare only the part that the state government had
approved.Such local debts with state approvals were already 10.7
trillion.The debts that local governments issued on their ownwere about RMB
69 trillion.

State Council economist: "We calculated the numberbased on statistics
obtained from four main banks: Industrialand Commercial Bank, Construction
Bank, Agriculture Bank,and Communications Bank. We then reported all stats
tothe central bank, the People's Bank of China.It came out to be RMB 69
trillion.

Since the local government debts were revealed,Beijing can no longer
conceal the risk of its public debt.

On a State Council Standing Committee meeting on July 6Premier Wen Jiabao
pointed out the risks of local debts.Although the CCP listed a few measures
to amend it,many analysts are not optimistic.

Economic and financial commentator Caoan Jushi said,the CCP has missed the
chance to deal with such issues.

Caoan Jushi: As the local governments are unable to repaytheir debts, a
management crisis will be triggered.If local governments do not repay their
debts,the people will protest, as they lose their investments.If, however,
the central government takes over the debts,it will be enormous, equivalent
to China's annual GDP.The CCP does not have enough money to repay, either.

Caoan: The only way that the CCP can solve this issue isto pay local debts
through credits, and eventually,the central bank will take over. To reduce
the debt value,the bank in turn will issue more money to cause inflation.

However, he worries that China's local debts have becomea very large time
bomb, which may explode at any time,causing the collapse China's economy.

NTD reporters Liang Xin, Lin Huixin and Wang Mingyu 2011-07-13
08:24:15http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/07/13/a559061.html.-【禁闻】经济专
家：全大陆地方债达69万亿.html