【禁闻】一胎化恶果 老龄化和性别比例失调

【禁闻】一胎化恶果 老龄化和性别比例失调

【新唐人2011年4月30日讯】中共领导人胡锦涛最近表示，当局将继续严格执行计划生
育政策，继续维持低生育水准。而最新统计显示，中国社会「老龄化」和「性别比例」
失调等问题越来越严重。一些学者早先发表文章，呼吁当局在十二五规画停止计划生
育，胡锦涛的这一讲话，让希望结束一胎化的许多人愿望落空了。

胡锦涛在4月26号政治局会议上做出这番讲话，证实当局会继续推行独生子女政策。然
而三十年来的计划生育政策的恶果已经浮现出来。

28号，国家统计局公布了第六次人口普查资料。结果显示「老龄化」加剧，中国14岁以
下人口总数比10年前下降了6.3%。而60岁以上老龄人口的总数则增加了3.3%，占中国人
口总数13.3%。

而国家统计局局长马建堂对外国记者承认，出生人口「性别比例」失调状况，实际上很
严重。

杨支柱（原中国青年政治学院法律系副教授）：「为什么会出现『老龄化'？那不就是
孩子少了吗？年轻人比例少嘛。坚持现在的政策你不可能解决老龄化问题。只会使老龄
化问题越来越严重啊。『性别比例'也是一样的。为什么人们要性别选择呢？因为他不
能多生几个来满足自己的性别偏好。那过去就没有关系嘛，我生三个女儿没有关系，我
接着生就是了。」

杨支柱表示，中共的人口政策是[断子绝孙]的做法。他说，人类社会需要延续下去，养
老负担不能太重。如果少生孩子，孩子赡养老人的压力变大，就难以有精力抚养后代。

国家计划生育委员会专家委员，博士生导师梁中堂很早就反对人口控制论。1985年他在
国家批准下，选择山西翼城县试点他的二胎晚育理论。二十多年的实践证明，放松计划
生育政策，人口数量反而低于全国水准，而且各项人口指标优于全国。

杨支柱认为，计划生育已经成为意识形态和利益的结合体。一方面，计划生育政策是由
毛泽东等中共元老提出来，现任中共领导人胡锦涛墨守成规，不敢越雷池半步。另一方
面，中共很多官员是依靠计划生育这个政绩爬上来的。因此极力维护计划生育政策。

杨支柱：「不仅是他们（计生委）是抢劫集团，那包括很多大员们，省长书记们，政治
局委员恐怕有不少是属于这个既得利益集团的。为什么呢？因为我们过去有一个计划生
育一票否决制。谁要是计生指标实现不了的话，你就要被罢官。因为这些人过去尤其是
上世纪八九十年代搞得很厉害的时候，他们都可以说是血债累累。」

杨支柱原来在中国青年政治学院担任法律系副教授。去年由于生下第二胎女儿，而被单
位开除。"超生副教授"的选择令很多人大跌眼镜。但他坦然表示，知识份子也有保护后
代的本能。

那么，「计划生育政策」将给未来中国社会带来什么问题？

「性别失调」使得20%的男子找不到配偶，将可能催生跨国新娘和人口贩卖现象。而「
人口老龄化」将带来年轻劳工的缺乏。今年沿海和内地的工厂已经出现「用工荒」。

另外，「人口老龄化」也意味着年轻人要负担越来越多的老年人，而中国的社会福利保
障体系仍然非常薄弱。

新唐人记者秦雪、王明宇采访报导。

Bitter fruits of one-child policy

CCP's (Chinese Communist Party) leader Hu Jintaorecently declared, that the
one-child policy willcontinue to be rigidly enforced, to keepa low birth
rate.But according to recent statistics, the issues of"aging" and "gender
ratio" imbalance are worsening.Some scholars had published articles to
callon the authorities to stop the one-child policyin the Twelfth Five-Year
Plan.But Hu's speech chilled many people's hope.

Hu's speech at a meeting of the Political Bureau onApril 26th, confirmed
that the authorities will carry onthe one-child policy.But after enforcing
this policy for 30 years,now its bitter fruits have risen.

13.3%。On April 28th, the State Statistics Bureau releasedthe results of
the 6th population census, whichshowed an increasing "aging"
problem.Compared with the situation of 10 years ago,the number of people
aged below 14 dropped by 6.3%while people aged above 60 increased by
3.3%and accounts for 13.3% of the national total.

Ma Jiantang, Director of National Bureauof Statistics, admitted the severe
situation of"gender ratio" imbalance of newborns,when facing foreign
journalists.

Yang Zhizhu (former associate professor at ChinaYouth University for
Political Sciences) said: "Why isthere an 『aging' issue?That's because of
fewer newborns and teenagers.By carrying on the current policy, the
authorities cannever solve the issue of 『aging' but only make it worse.And
same for the 『gender ratio' issue.Why do people choose genders of
newborns?That's because their gender preferencescould not be satisfied by
having more children.Previously it is not a problem because people
couldhave more children if they had 3 daughters."

Yang said that CCP's policy is to make people"sonless".The load to support
the old shouldn't be too heavyin order to maintain human societies.If
people have fewer kids, their kids' burdento maintain them becomes heavier
andthey will have less energy to raise their own children.

Liang Zhongtang, a member of the expert committeeof China's birth control,
has long opposed thebirth control. Since 1985, approved by the state, he
choseYicheng County in Shanxi Province, to test histheory of two-children
and late childbirth.20 years' practice has proved that by looseningthe
birth control, the population becomes smallerthan national average while
all demographic indicesare better than national averages.

Yang Zhizhu believes that birth control policy hasbecome a combination of
ideology and interests.On the one hand, the policy was put forward byCCP's
patriarchs like Mao Zedong and CCP'scurrent leader Hu Jintao dares not go
against it.On the other hand, many of CCP's officials getpromoted by
enforcing birth control policy actively,therefore they strongly defend it.

Yang Zhizhu said: "The Birth Control Commission isa robbering gang, and
many governors,party secretaries and members of the Political Bureaualso
belong to this vested interest group. Why?There was a one-vote-down system
about birth control,meaning an official was dismissed if he didn't
fulfillthe birth control program.These people previously vigorously
enforcedbirth control policy especially in the 80s and 90s andowe many
bloody debts."

Yang Zhizhu was an associate professor of law atChina Youth University for
Political Sciences.Last year, he was dismissed because he hada second kid,
a daughter.His choice surprised many people.But he said that intellectuals
also have the instinctof protecting their offsprings.

Then what problems will the "birth control policy"bring to China's society?

The "Gender ratio imbalance" has made 20% of thetotal male population
unable to find spouses andcould result in phenomena like foreign wives
andhuman trafficking.The "aging" issue will result in the depletion ofyoung
labors.There is already a labor shortage in many coastaland inland
industries.

Also, the "aging" issue means young people aresupporting more old people,
butChina's social welfare is still very weak.

NTD reporters Qin Xue and Wang Mingyu 2011-04-30
10:12:38http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/04/30/a525433.html.-【禁闻】一胎化
恶果-老龄化和性别比例失调.html