【禁闻】楼市降价大潮来 土地财政陷窘境

【禁闻】楼市降价大潮来 土地财政陷窘境

【新唐人2011年11月4日讯】最近，在中共国务院限购、限价、限贷等强硬政策下，降
价潮逐渐席卷了整个中国楼市。不过，接踵而来的是土地市场的急速降温、地方政府土
地财源的骤减。这让长期以土地出让金为财政收入来源的地方政府一下子变成窘迫不
堪，它们将如何应对这一难题呢？我们听�专家的分析。

中国广东城市珠海，刚刚在11月1号推出�双限�政策，尽管让众多开发商为之心
寒，然而更深层的难题，可能是楼市低迷所带来的政府土地财政问题。

《第一财经日报》披露，从公开资料显示，下半年以来，珠海土地市场不断出现土地流
拍现象。

《南方都市报》则从珠海市财政局了解到，珠海前三季度土地出让金与预期相比差距很
大，年初预计土地出让收入可达88亿元，按目前的情况，市财政将调整预算到50多亿
元，减少了30多亿。

去年前10月，珠海市土地使用权出让金收入203.9亿元，约占当地GDP的24%，同比增长
14倍。《第一财经日报》分析，按照今年土地收入增幅程度来看，到今年10月市本级土
地使用权出让金收入能到100亿元都不容易。

一直以来，中国各省和各城市政府缺乏其他稳定的财政收入来源，严重依赖出让土地收
入，经常将农用地通过拍卖形式出让给房地产开发商。

《路透社》援引了上海一家民间投资顾问公司莫尼塔（CEBM）的分析师乔永远的看
法，他认为：�随着土地出让收入明显减少，中国多数城市的财政收入基数可能逐渐缩
小。�

那么被隔阻了土地财源的地方政府新的可持续收入来源在哪里呢？

纽约市立大学经济学教授陈志飞认为，地方政府会采取征收税金的办法来弥补部分财政
收入。

纽约市立大学经济学教授陈志飞：�将来的中国整个的运营环境、经济领域，它的税收
情况会有很大的改变。而且地方的税收会有大幅度的增加。这一块，我估计就是地方政
府会采取举措来改变它，以土地转让金减少而造成的财政损失，中央政府与地方政府最
后也会达成一个默契，我把你的土地转让金、房产这块损失，我会用睁一只眼，闭一只
眼的办法来让你乱征各种税金来弥补，我想这个是一个可能发生的情况。�

最近，浙江湖州发生万人抗税事件引发各界关注。陈志飞认为，这起事件已经体现出大
陆地方财政在地皮转让这方面收入减少，转而征收以地方命名的各种附加税来弥补财政
来源。

此外，目前已经在上海、深圳试行的�地产税�也会让地方政府增加财政收入。不
过，陈志飞认为，增收税金并不能完全弥补地方财政。

纽约市立大学经济学教授陈志飞：�地方财政肯定会紧缩，这是中央与地方博弈的主要
部分。因为它们（中共中央）发现，这个实际是地方做大，还有经济泡沫形成的主要来
源，这样下去的话，矛盾会加剧，而且这个经济泡沫会把邪党的体制崩掉。这也是所谓
经济过热带来的问题，那么经济过热实际上是虚假的，虚拟的，泡沫型的，所以说，外
界已经预计到，今年的经济发展可能还会增长达到9.5%左右，但是，在两三年内它会降
到6%。�

对中共出台的楼市调控政策，美国《华尔街日报》3号的文章援引分析师和开发商的分
析说，由于中共政府实施抗通胀政策导致银行信贷收紧，经济整体放缓，投资者在房价
多年稳步上涨后变得谨慎起来，中国楼市前景正在变坏。

分析认为，珠海�限购令�凸显楼市政治压力，随着明年中共18大召开，楼市受到了更
多的审视，因为如果到那时候房价仍高不可攀，似乎就说明共产党没有能力保障广大民
众的生活。

新唐人记者梁欣、李静、张健采访报导。

CCP Local Authorities Face Plight of Land Revenue

Recently, State Council of Chinese Communist Party(CCP) authorities
released tough policies such as limiting home purchase,limiting prices and
limiting loans etc..a wave of price cuts swept through China's property
market.However, land market cooling-down ensued as well asslump land
revenues for the CCP local authorities, whichhas long-term relied on the
income of land sales,suddenly trapped in a sorry plightHow will CCP local
authorities cope with such a dilemma?Let's see experts' analysis.

An official "double-limiting" policy on property market wasjust launched on
November 1st in Zhuhai, Guangdong,bringing chilling to many property
developers.

However, a more deep-seated tough question might befocused on the land
financial problem, triggered by the property market downturn.

First Financial Daily reveals that publicly available data showsince the
second half of this year, the land market in Zhuhai kept failing
landauctions.

Southern Metropolis Daily reports quoted official data thatrevenues from
land sales in the first three quarters differed greatly from
theexpectation.In early 2011, land sales revenues were expected to reachRMB
8.8 billion. Based on the present situation,the Municipal Bureau of Finance
will have to lower the budgetby RMB 3 billion, to RMB 5 billion.

The first ten months of 2010, revenues from land salesin Zhuhai were RMB
20.39 billion, about 24% of local GDP.A year-on-year increase of 14
times.First Financial Dail analyzed that,according to this year's growing
rate of land revenue,it is hard to reach RMB10 billion by this October.

All along, China's provincial and municipal authorities lackother stable
sources of fiscal revenues.They have been heavily relying on revenues of
land sales.

Agricultural lands are often sold to real estate developersthrough auctions.

Reuters quoted Qiao Yongyuan, an economistat the CEBM Group in Shanghai,
saying," with obvious declining of land revenues,the total fiscal revenues
of most cities in China might be gradually diminished."

Where are new sustainable sources of fiscal incomes for CCP'slocal
authorities?

Chen Zhifei, a professor of economics at the City Universityof New York,
believed that local authorities will levy taxes to offset part ofits fiscal
revenues.

Chen Zhifei: "In the future, the entire operating environment,economy and
tax collection in China, may vary greatly.Local authorities may
substantially increase taxes.

I think that they will take measures to offset the lossescaused by
diminished land revenues,and will finally reach a tacit agreement withCCP
Central authorities.The latter will turn a blind eye to local authorities'
levyingvarious taxes. I think this is likely to happen. "

Recently, a mass tax-resistance incident broke outin Huzhou, Zhejiang,
drawing public attentions.Chen Zhifei commented that the incident unveiled
thatCCP local authorities' land revenues have diminished.Thus they levied
other various local additional taxesto make up their financial sources.

What's more, the property tax, currently piloted in Shanghaiand Shenzhen,
will increase local authorities' fiscal revenues.However, Chen Zhifei
believed that tax increment will notfully compensate local fiscal finance.

Chen Zhifei: "The local fiscal finance will certainly be tight.

This is the major part of game played between CCP'scentral authorities and
local authorities.CCP central authorities found that land revenues not
onlyhelped local authorities to be stronger in terms of finance, but also
the majorsource of economic bubble.If it goes on, conflicts will increase,
and the economic bubblewill make CCP's whole system collapse.That is the
so-called problems caused byoverheated economy.In reality, the overheated
economy is fabricatedand fictitious, a bubble.So it has been estimated that
China's economicgrow rate will be 9.5% this year.But within two or three
years,it will be dropped down to 6%. "

After Zhuhai issued an official home purchase limited policy,the Wall
Street Journal's article dated November 3,quoted analysts and developers as
saying thatCCP's anti-inflationary policies led to tight bank credit, the
overall economyhas slowed down.Investors have become cautious after years
of steadyupward housing prices.China's property market outlook is worsening.

Analysts say that Zhuhai's official limiting order exposedCCP put political
pressure on the property market.With the upcoming 18th CCP Congress in
2012,more attention are focused on China's property market.If housing
prices are still sky high in next year, it seemsshowing that CCP has no
capability to assure civilians' lives.

NTD reporters Liang Xin, Li Jing and Zhang Jian 2011-11-04
05:18:06http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/11/04/a612712.html.-【禁闻】楼市降
价大潮来-土地财政陷窘境.html